Australian Mining Equities Outlook for 2025

Highlights from Investability’s Fund Manager Panel Discussion at Resourcing Tomorrow in London

At the recent Resourcing Tomorrow event in London, I had the pleasure of moderating an insightful panel on the opportunities in Australian mining equities for 2025, alongside a distinguished panel of industry leaders:

🔹 John Forwood, Chief Investment Officer at Lowell Resources Funds Management
🔹 Namali Mackay, Managing Director of the Critical Minerals Association Australia
🔹 Richard Shemesian, Managing Director of Bennelong Venture Capital

The panel delved into the opportunities (and challenges) shaping the Australian mining sector in the years ahead, covering sustainability, commodity predictions and more!

Watch or listen above, or read on the get the highlights of the discussion….

A Reflection on 2024: Challenges and Resilience

John Forwood kicked off the discussion by examining the performance of Australian mining equities in 2024. While the year had moments of optimism, such as upticks in the metals market spurred by macroeconomic events, overall progress was limited. Transition metals faced significant challenges, while precious metals like gold and silver emerged as stronger performers. Forwood noted the persistent struggles for critical minerals, particularly in pricing and financing, which left junior miners grappling with capital hurdles.

Namali Mackay echoed these sentiments, highlighting the difficulties the critical minerals sector has encountered, from shutdowns to financing bottlenecks. She stressed the importance of government support to unlock private investment and streamline processes, ensuring a sustainable pipeline of resources to meet global demand.

Market Dynamics and the Path Ahead

Richard Shemesian provided valuable insights into market cycles, noting the emergence of mergers and acquisitions as a precursor to potential booms. He pointed to the Northern Star’s takeover of De Grey Mining as an indicator of where the market might be heading. Shemesian’s optimism stemmed from the possibility of geopolitical triggers or price shifts in critical and precious metals, potentially driving market momentum.

The discussion also shed light on the challenges faced by junior miners in raising capital for large-scale projects. Forwood emphasised the need for dual-outcome investment theses—projects with potential standalone value or lower-capital solutions leveraging existing infrastructure. Such strategies could mitigate the risks of market undervaluation and foster growth.

Government Policies and Industry Initiatives

Namali Mackay underscored the role of government incentives, such as the critical minerals production tax incentive, in fostering value-added processing and midstream growth. However, she cautioned against incentivising the wrong players and stressed the need for innovative solutions to address upstream challenges.

Panelists also discussed the global competitive landscape, noting how countries like Canada, the US, and China offer varying levels of support for their mining sectors. Australia’s ability to remain competitive hinges on creative policy interventions and industry collaboration.

The Role of ESG and Technology

Sustainability remains a central theme in mining, with ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) considerations shaping investment decisions. While ESG compliance can be a challenge, the panel agreed on its necessity for long-term viability. John Forwood highlighted the economic risks of neglecting ESG standards, while Shemesian questioned whether regulatory frameworks might shift in response to global competition.

The conversation also touched on the adoption of AI technologies in exploration. While AI has yet to deliver groundbreaking discoveries, its potential to optimise resource modelling and streamline data analysis offers promising avenues for junior miners.

Commodities to Watch in 2025

As the panel concluded, each expert shared their predictions for standout commodities in 2025:

• John Forwood: Tungsten and silver, particularly if silver shifts from an industrial to a bullion-driven market.
• Namali Mackay: Silver, due to its growing industrial and investment demand.
• Richard Shemesian: A mix of critical metals like palladium, zinc, and nickel, alongside gold and silver, driven by geopolitical events and market spikes.

Optimism Amidst Challenges

Despite the hurdles, the panelists expressed cautious optimism for the future of Australian mining equities. Shemesian highlighted the country’s strong position as a reliable and resource-rich nation, poised to benefit from shifting global supply chains and increasing interest from major investors.

Conclusion

The Australian mining sector stands at a crossroads, balancing opportunities in critical and precious metals with the challenges of ESG compliance, financing, and global competition. With strategic government support, innovative industry practices, and adaptive market strategies, the sector is well-positioned to thrive in 2025 and beyond. For investors, the key lies in identifying resilient projects, emerging trends, and untapped potential within this dynamic landscape.